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Combined Global Demand Forecasts for Antiretroviral Medicines and HIV Diagnostics in Low and Medium Income Countries from 2015 to 2020

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Geneva, WHO, 2016

The goal of this report is to provide countries and suppliers with estimates of the global market for antiretroviral (ARV) medicines in low- and middle-income countries for 2015–2020. The report includes estimates of the global demand for both active pharmaceutical ingredients and ARV formulations to enable suppliers to manage their manufacturing capacity accordingly.

This report uses three forecasting approaches to project the demand for ART, expressed as the number of people receiving treatment from 2015 to 2020: • the linear regression forecast extrapolates from the historical trends of the previous three years (2012, 2013 and 2014) in the number of people receiving ARV drugs; • the country target model reflects the reported programme goals of national programmes; and • the approach of the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) focuses on the experience of countries with high ARV medicine use for treating and preventing HIV infection.

Fig. 4–17 show the projections for the market for active pharmaceutical ingredients for adults and children. In addition to providing estimated demand for active pharmaceutical ingredients, this report includes estimated demand for ARV drug formulations (in person-years) based on projected procurement data from the Supply Chain Management System and the Government of South Africa for 2016 to 2019 (Table 12). The figures in this report are not meant to be definitive consumption of ARV drugs from 2015 to 2020; rather, they provide a range of possible demand for ARV drugs if current trends continue.