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Combined Global Demand Forecasts for Antiretroviral Medicines and HIV Diagnostics in Low-and-Middle Income Countries from 2015 to 2020

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Geneva, WHO, 2016

The goal of this report is to provide countries and suppliers with estimates of the global market for antiretroviral (ARV) medicines in low-and middle-income countries for 2015–2020. The report includes estimates of the global demand for both active pharmaceutical ingredients and ARV formulations to enable suppliers to manage their manufacturing capacity accordingly. This report uses three forecasting approaches to project the demand for ART, expressed as the number of people receiving treatment
from 2015 to 2020: the linear regression forecast extrapolates from the historical trends of the previous three years (2012, 2013 and 2014) in the number of people receiving ARV drugs; the country target model reflects the reported programme goals of national programmes; and the approach of the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) focuses on the experience of countries with high ARV medicine use for treating and preventing HIV infection.